精东传媒

June 11, 2019

Migrants will pay the price of Mexico’s tariff deal with Trump

Under a new deal between the U.S. and Mexico, Mexico will send 6,000 troops to its southern border with Guatemala to prevent migrants from continuing their northward journey toward the United States.

Mexican President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador is  an agreement avoiding  as a major political and diplomatic triumph for his government.

鈥淲e didn鈥檛 win everything, but we were able to claim a victory with there being no tariffs,鈥� , Mexico鈥檚 foreign affairs secretary, on June 9.

The two neighbors have been at odds since United States President Donald Trump on May 30  to hit all Mexican imports with steadily rising tariffs unless Mexico successfully halted the northward flow of Central American migrants fleeing  through Mexico toward the United States.

Approximately  are destined for the United States. Tariffs would have devastated Mexico鈥檚 economy.

To keep its goods untaxed, Mexico had to convince President Trump that it was serious about . After a week of frantic negotiations, Mexico   up to 6,000 National Guard troops to its southern border with Guatemala to stop migrants from entering Mexico.

As part of the agreement, a  known as 鈥�,鈥� which forces  to wait in Mexico while their asylum claims are processed in the U.S., will also be expanded.

At a June 8 rally 鈥渇or the dignity of Mexico and friendship with the U.S.鈥� held in the border city of Tijuana, L贸pez Obrador  that Mexico will reinforce its southern border while still 鈥渁pplying the law and respecting the human rights鈥� of migrants.

Ebrard added at the rally that Mexico had emerged from a near trade war with its 鈥渄ignity intact.鈥�

Doing the dirty work

As a law professor who , I believe that dignity will come at great cost to both Mexico and to the migrants fleeing  in Central America.

Many Mexican lawmakers, including allies of the president, have expressed  that their immigration policy is now bound by an 鈥渋mmoral and unacceptable鈥� deal that effectively turns Mexico itself into .

The agreement violates the campaign promises of L贸pez Obrador, who took office in December  and pledging not to do the U.S.鈥榮 鈥溾�� on border enforcement.

It also violates the Mexican Constitution and international law.

According to  asylum-seekers with demonstrable fear of persecution in their home countries are entitled to seek protection in the place of their choosing. . As of 2011, legitimate asylum-seekers are entitled not just to seek but to be granted asylum in Mexico.

Trump鈥檚 economic threats against Mexico may not even have been legal. Both the current  and the newly signed 鈥� but not yet ratified 鈥�  require most trade between North American countries to be tariff-free.

Even before the recent negotiations, L贸pez Obrador was already quietly  with U.S. demands to do more to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S.

Between January and May of this year, Mexico  74,031 migrants 鈥� a 36% increase compared to the same period last year under former . The number of migrants deported from Mexico tripled from  in December 2018 to  in April 2019, government statistics show.

Sending troops out to target migrants, as Mexico has now promised to do, will almost certainly result in the  against these migrants.

The Mexican National Guard is an untested new military police force with immigration enforcement powers. Its creation n early 2019 was highly controversial in Mexico given the Mexican military鈥檚 .

Between 2007 and 2017, when troops were helping police fight Mexican drug cartels, the National Human Rights Commission received  committed by soldiers against civilians. These included accusations of arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings.

Mexico is not a safe country

Beyond avoiding tariffs, Mexico鈥檚 main victory in its negotiations with the United States appears to be having resisted pressure to sign a .

Under such an agreement, refugees are required to apply for asylum in the country where they first land and not the country where they ultimately want to settle. This means that one country can reject a person鈥檚 asylum application if they have already been granted asylum by another country.

Canada and the U.S. signed such an agreement in 2002, and Trump has been pushing Mexico to do the same since spring 2018. Under this proposal, thousands of migrants in Mexico who have already applied for asylum in the United States and are now waiting for an answer would see their applications invalidated.

Foreign Secretary Ebrard consistently rejected that proposal. He insisted that a safe third country arrangement would violate the Mexican Constitution and Mexico鈥檚 .

But it is not actually clear how the newly expanded 鈥溾�� program 鈥� the details of which have not yet been released 鈥� will differ in practice from a safe third country agreement.

Migrants may end up staying in Mexico for years while they await their asylum hearing in the United States. During that period, Mexico will be responsible for housing, feeding and protecting refugees.

Jorge Casta帽eda, Mexico鈥檚 secretary of foreign affairs from 2000 to 2003, has derided Mexico鈥檚 commitment as a 鈥渓ight鈥� safe third country agreement.

The mere idea that Mexico is safe is 鈥渁 particularly cynical bout of wishful thinking,鈥� as Mexican journalist Le贸n Krauze .

Mexico is one of the world鈥檚 most dangerous places. An estimated  there last year 鈥�  in a country with less than half the population.

Dozens of Central Americans have disappeared from migrant caravans journeying northward in Mexico. Over 90% of migrants say they do not feel safe in Mexico, according to a  of 500 Central American asylum-seekers conducted in February 2018.

Mexico must do more with less

The 鈥淩emain in Mexico鈥� policy is likely to result in a significant increase in claims filed for asylum in Mexico, where the immigration system is already under enormous strain.

Around 29,000 people applied for asylum in Mexico in 2018, according to . This year, between January and March, Mexico received 12,716 asylum applications 鈥� 43% of last year鈥檚 total in just three months.

The Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance, which processes asylum claims, currently has a two-year backlog.

It will now have to do more with less.

Under L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 austerity policies, the commission鈥檚 2019 budget was cut 20%, to about US$1 million 鈥� its lowest budget since 2011.

More migrants, less money, extreme violence and a recalcitrant, unpredictable northern neighbor 鈥� these are the ingredients of a refugee crisis, not a diplomatic victory.

, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, 精东传媒 of 精东传媒

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